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October 27, 2009
Germany, United Kingdom, Mexico, Canada Bookings and Projected Bookings to the United States
Commerce Travel Trade Barometer to also Track Travel from Japan
Germany Travel Trade Barometer: Signs of Positive Bookings
After sharp declines at the beginning of 2009, Germany bookings to the United States in the second quarter of 2009 were reported to be on par with second quarter 2008 bookings, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce sponsored Germany Travel Trade Barometer. On average, the third and fourth quarter of 2009 bookings were also projected to be about the same as they were last year. The return of travelers from Germany is a good sign that the U.S. travel and tourism industry is beginning to recover from the economic downturn. The exchange rate, accommodation rates, and competitive airfares are projected to be the top motivators for travel to the United States over the next six months from Germany.
United Kingdom Travel Trade Barometer: 2009 Bookings Predicted to be Down
United Kingdom bookings to the United States decreased in the second quarter of 2009 and are projected to continue to be down through the end of the year, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce sponsored United Kingdom Travel Trade Barometer. On average, United Kingdom bookings to the United States decreased from four to nine percent in the second quarter of 2009 compared to the same period in 2008. The United Kingdom is projected to continue to send fewer visitors to the United States during the second half of 2009. The primary barriers for travel in the second half of 2009 are the global economy, competitive promotion by other long-haul destinations, and the economy in the United Kingdom.
Mexico Travel Trade Barometer: 2009 Bookings Continue to Contract
Mexico bookings to the United States decreased in the second quarter of 2009 and are projected to continue to be down through the end of the year, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce sponsored Mexico Travel Trade Barometer. On average, bookings to the United States decreased from 10 to 15 percent in the second quarter of 2009 compared to the same period in 2008. Mexico is projected to continue to send fewer visitors to the United States during the second half of 2009. The primary factors driving travel down continue to be the global economy, the economy in Mexico, and visa processing time. It is worth noting that on average, the travel trade rated pandemic/epidemic issues (e.g., H1N1 Flu) as a minimum deterrent for travel to the United States.
Canada Travel Trade Barometer: 2009 Bookings on the Decline
Canada bookings to the United States decreased in the second quarter of 2009 and are projected to continue to be down through the end of the year, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce sponsored Canada Travel Trade Barometer. On average, bookings to the United States decreased from 10 to 15 percent in the second quarter of 2009 compared to the same period in 2008. Trade projected bookings for both the third and fourth quarter to be lower than 2008. The primary factors driving travel down continue to be the global economy and Canada’s own economy. Some trade reported that the exchange rate was a motivator, however, on average it was rated to have no impact through the end of 2009.
Japan Travel Trade Barometer: Launched in September 2009
The Japan Travel Trade Barometer was launched in September 2009 to complement the existing programs in Germany, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Mexico. With the addition of Japan, the Barometer program reports on 73 percent of the total visitor arrivals to the United States. Japan is the fourth largest travel market for the United States and the expansion of the Travel Trade Barometer into Japan will help U.S. companies effectively track Japan travel demand and bookings, and the factors impacting travel from this critical market.
BACKGROUD AND SOURCE:
Travel Market Insights conducts the Germany, United Kingdom, Mexico, Canada, and Japan Travel Trade Barometer programs. The U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, is a sponsor and was the initial developer of the barometer program. The Barometer program is conducted with support from the U.S. and Foreign Commercial Service and various Visit USA Committees and additional sponsors.
The Travel Trade Barometer survey is conducted on a quarterly basis in Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Canada and Japan and is available through subscription. Reports sent to subscribers include additional information, such as:
Bookings – looking at the past quarter and the next two quarters for U.S. and competitive regional destinations; Short term bookings for more than five specific categories; and Over 15 motivators or deterrents for travel to the United States.
October 27, 2009
U.S. COMMERCE DEPARTMENT FORECASTS REBOUND IN INTERNATIONAL
TRAVEL TO THE UNITED STATES BY 2010
The U.S. Department of Commerce projects international travel to the United States to
regain its footing by 2010 following its first forecasted year of decline (2009) since 2003.
Reflective of the current global economic environment, international travel is forecasted
to decline by 8 percent in 2009. A 3 percent rebound is projected for the United States
by the end of 2010, followed by 5 percent annual increases through 2013.
In 2009 twenty-two of the top 25 arrival markets will post declines. The largest declines
in 2009 will be from Taiwan (-17%), Ireland (-14%), Sweden (-13%), Mexico (-12%),
United Kingdom (-12 %), and Netherlands (-10%).
These declines come after the United States hosted a record 58 million international
visitors in 2008. The arrivals forecast for 2009-2013 predicts that the 2008 record will
be broken in 2012 and in 2013. International arrivals will reach almost 64 million, an
increase of 9 percent between 2008 and 2013.
The U.S. travel forecast was prepared by the Department of Commerce in conjunction
with IHS Global Insight,






